Economic Newsletter – August 2023

Will This Time Be Different?
Contrary to revised expectations – and robust economic data – the business cycle has not been repealed. Yes, a recession is coming, but it is taking an awfully long time to arrive. When it does, its shape may look different, more like a mini recession than an outright downturn.

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Economic Newsletter – June 2023

Economists are often called dismal scientists, as they are more likely to see the proverbial glass as half-empty than half full. That label is vividly on display now, as the forecast of a recession within the economic community is more pronounced than ever.

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Economic Newsletter – May 2023

While the banking panic that rocked the financial markets in March has been defused, its aftereffects are rippling through the economy. We will have a better sense of how much credit conditions have tightened on May 8 when the Federal Reserve releases its Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.

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Economic Newsletter – April 2023

Banking Stress Adds Risk to The Outlook
It is a time-honored adage that monetary policy affects the economy with long and variable lags. Well, that time is up, if the tumult caused by the failure of a few regional banks is any indication.

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Economic Newsletter – January 2023

It was a rough 2022, but the U.S. economy survived the myriad headwinds thrown at it, including raging inflation, geopolitical stress, skyrocketing interest rates, declining stock prices, a recurring COVID-19 wave, and the most aggressive pivot towards monetary tightening in more than forty years.

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Economic Newsletter – December 2022

Has the inflation worm turned? It’s still early, but the signs are encouraging as an expanding list of price measures are pointing to slower increases. Whether this favorable trend continues is an open question; many factors underpinned the astonishing inflation cycle of the past two years and many don’t fit into conventional economic models that make predictions a bit easier.

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Economic Newsletter – October 2022

Enough is enough! The economy has demonstrated an astonishing amount of resiliency against the headwinds thrown at it over the past two years—Covid-19, both short and long, surging energy prices, spiraling interest rates, supply shortages and, not least, stubbornly high inflation.

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