Insights

Economic Newsletter – June 2024

For economists and policy makers, waiting for inflation to subside is like waiting for Godot. But that time may finally have arrived, as the consumer price index rose less than expected in April.

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Economic Newsletter – April 2024

With a presidential election looming, geopolitical tensions escalating and a central bank considering a major shift in its policy stance, 2024 looks to be an eventful year with a wide range of possible outcomes.

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Economic Newsletter – March 2024

January tends to be an ornery month for economists, and the calendar did not disappoint this year. In the closing months of 2023, it appeared that a Goldilocks economy was unfolding, one that featured a cooling, but still solid, pace of economic activity amid a steady decline in inflation.

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Economic Newsletter – February 2024

No Quit in This Economy. 2023 ended on a high note, punctuated by sharp rallies in both the stock and bond markets, tangible evidence that the economy is on a steady disinflationary growth path, and strong indications that the Fed is poised to cut rates in 2024.

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Economic Newsletter – January 2024

The era of low rates ended in March 2022 when the Federal Reserve belatedly started the most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in a generation, lifting its policy rate 11 times from near zero to a range of 5.25-5.50 percent in July of 2023, where it has remained. Until a few weeks ago, the central bank has wavered over what to do next, raise again or keep them “higher for longer”.

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Economic Newsletter – December 2023

Higher Speed Limit Slows Inflation
The holiday shopping season has officially kicked off , and while some have predicted a less festive Santa might have been coming down the chimney, the nation’s collective stockings will not be filled with coal.

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Economic Newsletter – November 2023

The American public may not be feeling better about things, but economists clearly are. Most households think the economy is going in the wrong direction, and consumer confi dence in one prominent survey is currently at recession levels.

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Economic Newsletter – October 2023

As expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the September 19-20 policy meeting, following 11 hikes over the last 18 months that lifted short-term rates from near zero to a range of 5.25-5.50 percent.

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Economic Newsletter – September 2023

The Economic Engine is Running Out of Fuel
Economists are sounding ever-more like Gilda Radner of Saturday Night Live fame, claiming “never mind” about their recession call of a few months ago.

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Economic Newsletter – August 2023

Will This Time Be Different?
Contrary to revised expectations – and robust economic data – the business cycle has not been repealed. Yes, a recession is coming, but it is taking an awfully long time to arrive. When it does, its shape may look different, more like a mini recession than an outright downturn.

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All BankRI branches and offices will be closed on Wednesday, June 19, 2024, in observance of Juneteenth.