Alarms warning of a recession ring louder with each rate hike by the Federal Reserve. So far this year, there’s been plenty – five since March and still counting.
Enough is enough! The economy has demonstrated an astonishing amount of resiliency against the headwinds thrown at it over the past two years—Covid-19, both short and long, surging energy prices, spiraling interest rates, supply shortages and, not least, stubbornly high inflation.
As summer draws to a close, the debate over whether the economy is overheated or rapidly cooling remains unanswered.
Economic Newsletter_August 2022 Don’t Rule Out A Soft LandingIn real estate, they say location is everything. In economics, timing is paramount. With prices rising at a pace not seen since the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve admittedly waited too long to start putting on the brakes, believing that the initial stage of […]
Economic Newsletter_July 2022 For the Fed, Failure to Curb Inflation is Not An Option Last year the main debate among economists was whether the inflation upsurge that suddenly gripped the nation was transitory or lasting. Most, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, blamed transient forces related to the pandemic, which they believed would fade as […]
Economic Newsletter_June 2022 Fading but still sturdy profits should sustain growth Although the coronavirus recession ended two years ago and the U.S. economy embarked on a remarkably strong recovery, many commentators are sounding alarms that a recession is just around the corner. While we are not in that camp – yet – it would be […]
BankRI _ May 2022 When Will Inflation Peak? It’s been a rough ride for investors as red ink has spilled profusely so far this year. The losses have been particularly acute in the bond market, which, ironically, is usually the refuge for investors seeking safety and stability when conditions get dicey. Not so this time. […]
Printable PDF Here Come The Rate Hikes The Russian invasion of Ukraine is primarily a human tragedy, but the global economic costs can’t be ignored – and they are piling up. It’s unclear how long the war will go on; the longer it persists, the greater the toll on world economies. As it is, the […]
Printable PDF Tumultuous Start To The Year With barely two months in the books, it is hard to remember another year that opened with as much drama as 2022. The swirl of events included the surge and rapid descent of the Omicron variant, spiraling inflation, heart-throbbing geopolitical tensions with Russia, a hawkish pivot by the […]
Printable PDF Economy Faces a Winter Chill A winter economic soft patch has begun, as spiking Omicron cases exacerbate supply chain and labor market stress and fuel greater consumer and business caution. But while the virus continues to be in the driver’s seat of the recovery, the early 2022 economic cool down won’t result in a […]